Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Have you seen my $FAZ? ~ Direxion Financial Bear 3X Shares (ETF) (Public, NYSE:FAZ)


this site has been changed

the new site is ... AssInTheHOLE.com

please make a note of it. 

.... beep. beep. beep.

50 comments:

Anonymous said...

ohhhhhhhhhh
that look cool
i lost big big big today.
anybody any same faith with me buying the put and short.
damn i have heart bit.........

BUY ON THE DIP said...

Still some of the great financiers talked hopefully at least to newspaper reporters and the ensuing rallies in the stock market gave the lie to the calamity howlers. Was I fundamentally wrong in being bearish or merely temporarily wrong in having begun to sell short too soon?

I decided that I began too soon, but that I really couldn't help it. Then the market began to sell off. That was my opportunity. I sold all I could, and then stocks rallied again, to quite a high level.

It cleaned me out.

There I was -- right and busted!

I tell you it was remarkable. What happened was this. I looked ahead and saw a big pile of dollars. Out of it stuck a sign. It had "Help yourself," on it, in huge letters. Beside it stood a cart with "BuyOnTheDip.com" painted on its side. I had a brand-new shovel in my hand. There was not another soul in sight, so I had no competition in the gold-shoveling, which is one beauty of seeing the dollar-heap ahead of others. The people who might have seen it if they had stopped to look were just then looking at baseball games instead, or motoring or buying houses to be paid for with the very dollars that I saw. That was the first time that I had seen big money ahead, and I naturally started toward it on the run.

Before I could reach the dollar-pile my wind went back on me and I fell to the ground. The pile of dollars was still there, but I had lost the shovel, and the wagon was gone. So much for sprinting too soon ! I was too eager to prove to myself that I had seen real dollars and not a mirage. I saw, and knew that I saw. Thinking about the reward for my excellent sight kept me from considering the distance to the dollar-heap. I should have walked and not sprinted.

That is what happened. I didn't wait to determine whether or not the time was right for plunging on the bear side.

BUY ON THE DIP said...

That is how I came to learn that even when one is properly bearish at the beginning (or near end) of a bear market it is well not to begin selling in bulk until there is no danger of the engine back-firing.

KP said...

I lost my ass too. Till when are you planning on holding FAZ? Do you still see DOW 5000-6000?

BUY ON THE DIP said...

again, hmmmm, .... just like the great bear rally of late 2008. we're "stuck" in the FAZ.

and again, i will hold FAZ until the "trade" becomes profitable.

may. august. october.

the "patience" of being wrong.

fortune teller says,...
"i see less trading in your near future."

good night. and good luck.

BUY ON THE DIP said...

I think they felt that I was bound to be right again very shortly and they knew that with my habit of pushing my luck all I needed was a start and I'd more than recover what I had lost.

They had made a great deal of money out of my trading and they would make more. So there was no trouble about my being able to trade there again as long as my credit stood high.

The succession of spankings I had received made me less aggressively cocksure; perhaps I should say less careless, for of course I knew I was just so much nearer to the smash. All I could do was wait watchfully, as I should have done before plunging. It wasn't a case of locking the stable after the horse was stolen. I simply had to be sure, the next time I tried. If a man didn't make mistakes he'd own the world in a month. But if he didn't profit by his mistakes he wouldn't own a blessed thing.

Anonymous said...

I get totally hosed by FAZ today ...

Anonymous said...

For every "asshole" that bought FAZ the past few days...there is another "asshole" that bought BAC at $15, held at $2.50, now he's back to $8ish. still down.

The last "asshole" , laughs best.

tony said...

wait......
watch..........
thank you all.

Clovis said...

Botd,

I can't imagine your not aware of the decaying nature of this beast... i believe the management fees bring about roughly a 3% weekly decay. I didn't buy and hold myself, but lost plenty trying catch the "falling chainsaw". I can however sympathize with your conviction as this would have led me to profits many times i got scared away too soon. I keep forgetting to compliment you on your 4 rooms analogy, love that movie. Good luck trading everyone, and "Don't Misbehave!"

localandbitter said...

Rape victim crew

Kidd Jones said...

BOTD

Just cause i want to kick the donkey... at what point would you bail on FAZ? I guess what I am saying is if this rally continues and the indexes break this key resistance and motor on eating away at FAZ, what point would you just say "a loss is a loss"?

P.S. I am still with you FAZ and holding SDS. I think we need the sticker again.... FAZ $55 is money

Kidd Jones said...

BTW I am referring to myself as the donkey, not you. I bought FAZ at $48 $45 $40 $35 $30 $25... are we ever going to see a down day again?

naz said...

It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!

Anonymous said...

Man this ass spanking has made me sober again... one of your rules "when shit looks too easy.. it is not"... now i hope this mofo dies soon... I was up 100%+ in 2009, lost majority of those gains...

R.

Anonymous said...

hey man, its all my fault, my name is Terrence. i've been following this blog for about over a year. i traded before and everything i bought went down and everything i shorted went up and eventually lost all. anyways, one year later (now) i decided to try again with 5g's and i was following your blog. every single trade you made, i would follow. so, as it turns out, i am cursed and i made lots of ppl loose money. i am sorry. if you tell me which stock to buy, i will buy it and u will see it will go down, so u can make money shorting it. again, im sorry.

The Conqueror said...

BOTD & the team,

I'm very sorry to hear your losses. I'm getting losses on FAZ, too. But I'm still holding long of BAC. I think you're right about the call of confidence.

Maybe the big money will drive the market up only until tomorrow when options expiration.

Anonymous said...

i was really thinking of getting some faz long but then i was looking at chart it seemed like yes there was some support at 33 if u draw straight line........ but then with s&p chart market seem to be wanting to touch 800 ..if you draw straight line down from tops.. it goes to near 800-
also skf has broken the down trend. if u draw a straight line across on the chart. so im staying back a bit to see where this stupid market goes.. volume is fading though...skf trend breaking cud be a fakeout and good botd.

i think gas will run out soon. unless they punch in UPTIK rule like soon rather then next month !!

Anonymous said...

i feel like an ass not buying citi the day it hit 1 . i was in front of the dam pc & didn't bother trading at all instead bought dam jpm and bac.. dam it. not enuf proft to recover losses yet. ughhh !!

Clovis said...

Anonymous, I really wouldn't try charting FAZ or SKF. Your much better off charting the underlying index, IE Russel Financial 1000 (rifin.x on google) for FAZ/FAS. The ETF's themselves have fees, adjustments, and leverage that all reduce accuracy substantially.

Kidd Jones said...

Clovis

also decay...

BUY ON THE DIP said...

i love this bold $X downgrade.

Decreasing PO to $11
With EPS and EBITDA at negative levels this year, they value X based on 60% of tangible book value (in line with previous trough levels). This brings PO to $11 (was $24). Based on revised PO, they calculate 35%+ downside to X shares.

Highest conviction underperform call
Merrill maintains underperform view on US Steel given the company’s high fixed cost structure, automotive exposure, and liquidity issues. Profits in all segments are under pressure and they see further downside to Street consensus. In firm's view, 2009 losses should be comparable to those seen in the 2001-03 timeframe.

Notablecalls: Merrill's $11 tgt is the new Street Low (prev. was $16). This will attract sellers. I suspect new lows are in store for X in the n-t.

Kidd Jones said...

bring back the sticker

FAZ $55 should be front page!!!!!!!!!!

Clovis said...

Hey Kid,

As far as I understand the decay is brought about by the management fees. I think we had the same idea just different terminology.

Anyone care to speculate on the effect of the options expiring tomorrow?

Clovis said...

I think we're looking at a correction for faz tomorrow, perhaps just over $32. Trying to use this guys spreadsheet:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pqmnyETSsprK22DrrEzYBPA

Anyone care to take a stab at support levels for the rifin tomorrow? 435? 453? Hopefully not 470 for our sake.

Kidd Jones said...

TEAM FAZ'Rs

$RIFIN looks to me like support around the $448.50-$451.08. I hope with the Quad Witch Hunt tomorrow we can break that. But I will take our 16.36% day and looks to be building steam in the after market up 2.71% currently.

P.S. I am going to be sending a petition around to everyone so I will need everyones address. It is for BOTD to put the FAZ $55 sticker back on the top of the front page. Hahahah

Kidd Jones said...

Clovis

Thanks for the work on the spreadsheet.

Kidd Jones said...

Monday will be a key day as to the week we may have. SP and a key turning point

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_yUqf2DpL7z4/ScQPVTLZAfI/AAAAAAAABJo/kcuTQJoQSQY/s1600-h/stock_chart_2_03-20-09.png

BOTD

Inflation trade may carry this market up after this leg down. Oil and Commodities look strong since the printing presses are on -super- autopilot for while... greenback killed

Jim Collins said...

I dunno what you guys are doing, I'm buying FAS , dollar cost averaging it and writing calls over my net cost point. Annual return on writing FAS calls is 300% +

Jim Collins said...

and then using the call option premiums to BUY MORE FAS!!

Anonymous said...

Chris FAZ,DF,BBY, finace, food, retail all your predictions were wrong. You have lost it. Stop rattling.

Anonymous said...

this is why i hate trading.. it is technical but then idiots come out & makes changes overnite to the market and then we get a flippin rally.. s&p is just about out of gas macd seems to be wanting to make market go down & now this ...s&p upper resistance 809 & 848 .. BOTD what do you think ? should i buy some FAZ Calls $55 out the money at around 1.80 ? or stick to $40 calls at 3.80 ? kinda new to options... thanks - X

BUY ON THE DIP said...

more FAZ !!

26.50
-8.50 (-24.29%)

26.48
-8.52 (-24.34%)

26.37
-8.63 (-24.66%)

26.35
-8.65 (-24.71%)

26.31
-8.69 (-24.83%)

26.29
-8.71 (-24.89%)

BUY ON THE DIP said...

long XOM,HK,X ... 15%

short ADM,MON,BTU,WFC ... 40%

<<<< FAZ >>>> ... 30%

cash 15%

jd said...

The banks slap traders hands again. So sad. Again, i'd still be buying FAZ right now.

BUY ON THE DIP said...

new low, i am.

FAZ

BUY ON THE DIP said...

i am no longer short WFC.

moved same money over to FAZ today.

FAZ> FAZ< !

BUY ON THE DIP said...

24.07
-10.93 (-31.23%)

BUY ON THE DIP said...

24.07
-10.93 (-31.23%)

BUY ON THE DIP said...

Sold xom calls. (closed)

BUY ON THE DIP said...

I want $19.00

jd said...

I should have had a few bucks in my trading account today so I could short things.

seizure said...

Weee.........................thud!


Small round of
SRS @ $51.50

I should buy more FAZ to average down but I need to avoid throwing more money at FAZ at this point.

JDP said...

fuck...my fAZ Calls got fucked today...jesus christ..

i think a lot of bears probably capitulated today and a lot of bulls probably got sucked in today at the top or near one...no participation from the big boys on either side as well after the morning pop...

anyways fuck this market.

Anonymous said...

yet
fuck this market, fuck fuck
all their did, go to 60 min. show.
fuck fuck

Goog said...

BOTD,

Now that we are waiting for FAZ to pull back from hell...what is the average cost YOU have on FAZ after all these buys?

Up to what portion\percentage of the total portfolio you recommend to continue average down??? you mentioned you are now @30% of totsl in FAZ...

What do you think is the next target for FAZ now? $40 TOP??

When will you make a decision to cut your\ours losses? and sell?

Thx a lot.

BUY ON THE DIP said...

FAZ cost $33ish

$38 is the new $55.

Anonymous said...

Bey BOTD,

Was wondering if u can recommend a good bank for securing a LOC in the range of 35-50K. FICO 700+

sara said...

BOTD

when is the faz bottom ?

Kidd Jones said...

BOTD

Market boomed today and all we hear are the BULLS ON PARADE but quick question??? How come the VIX never even broke 41 today? I am still holding my FAZ and my FAZhole hurts but I might sell mine on the next pull back cause the hemorrhoid in my FAZhole is swelling and making it uncomfortable to sit down. But on a bright side of the dark moon I bought some more FAZ @$19