The TRADER TRIANGLE of 2011: FA • TA • MA $STUDY $ELEVEN

FA = FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

1) The ECONOMY
2) The INDUSTRY
3) The COMPANY

Trading and investing based on the "FUNDIES" of a business or market ... earnings, financial statements, balance sheets, competitive advantages, new products, management, forward guidance, inventories, interest rates and state of the economy.  You'll hear words like "VALUE" and "GROWTH" used to describe the opportunity.  Stocks (companies) are judged by their dividend, growth rate, cash flow, and P/E ratio in the fundamental asylum.  With FA you can use broad generalizations and big thinking ... this is where you develop your THEME!

TA = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

1) CHART
2) PRICE
3) VOLUME

Technical Analysis uses past market data to predict future price movement.  Here we look for PATTERNS and TRENDS ... inspired CHART-WORK.  The tools of the trade are moving averages, technical indicators, lines of support and resistance, channels, familiar patters, i.e., cup-and-handle, double-top, double-bottom, flags, coils, pennants, and candle analysis.  Trading rules are outlined by Stochastics, MACD, RSI, Bollinger bands, divergences, retracements, breakouts and breakdowns.  What is an Elliot Wave? and Who is Fibonacci? ... stocks go up, down and sideways ... TA is the key to knowing which way and when.  


MA = MENTAL ANALYSIS

1) PREPARATION
2) MINDSET
3) ACTION

The MENTAL side of this game can be the toughest.  Taking a loss feels like shit.  "The day of THE TRADE you may feel a slight sting.  That's PRIDE fuckin' with you. FUCK PRIDE.  Pride only hurts, it never helps." ~ Mar-SELL-us Wallace.  The FACT is, "we" must take losses, and many of them.  LEARN to accept and embrace THE LOSER.  Selling is easy, you click "sell" and you're out of the position.  Don't let your WILL to WIN keep you from managing risk.  All you have is your P&L.  Your % gains tell the story, not your EGO.  Confidence is KEY, arrogance is a LOCK.  Your PLAN should control your emotions.  What are your profit and loss targets?  When will you enter or exit the trade?  Market or limit order?  Is this your best use of capital?  Are there other opportunities that make more sense given the situation?  How much of your portfolio are you willing to risk on this idea?  Is the fundamental side of the trade sound?  How about the technical side?  Why are you buying THIS stock?!?! ... When will you know if the trade is a success or failure?  ... before you buy or sell ... DEFINE YOUR EDGE! 

p.s.  Welcome to TWENTY ELEVEN ... the year of FATAMA! 

PEAKS, CLIFFS and VAL(L)E(YS)! ~ Cliffs Natural Resources Inc (Public, NYSE:CLF) & Vale (ADR) (Public, NYSE:VALE) ... BOTD.tv!

$VALE (buy DEC and JAN 35 CALLS)
1) $VALE starts trading in Hong Kong on DEC 8th.
2) $VALE starts Copper, integrates Tres Valles.
3) Brazil.
4) thee SUPER-CYCLE play!

$CLF (buy DEC and JAN 80s)
1) forever take over candidate
2) global exploration
3) Iron Ore and Coal (two-fer!)
4) Cheers!

CLIFFY, the WOLFMAN!!
   ... time to shave the recession beard?


p.s. Near Field Communication!
          .... $NXPI 16.14+2.16 (15.45%)
       original RECO = *click here* 

SPECULATIVE SUNDAY: Home Entertainment ~ Trident Microsystems, Inc. $TRID

$TRID under $2.00 

the LEADER in TV VP ... Trident Micro! 

BUY $TRID under $2

1) "Best of Breed" SoC (System-on-Chip) maker.

2) TV-VP MARKET: $2,000,000,000 (billion)

3) TRIDENT = 14% of worldwide TV video processing revenue.

4) 2,000 PATENTS in IMAGE, POWER, and 3DTV.

Trident CUSTOMERS

Trident PRODUCT strengths

STRATEGIC ALLIANCE:
      Trident integrates RoxioNow Platform into Chipset for HDTVs

"Consumers want to combine the quality from their digital TVs with the variety and flexibility they receive from streaming," said Dirk Wieberneit, SVP & General Manager of Trident's TV business unit. "RoxioNow provides us with an ideal ready-made solution to give them what they want. Building RoxioNow into our HDTV SoCs makes it easy for our customers in the DTV market to take advantage of the explosive growth in demand for high-quality streamed video content."

Trident's highly integrated, programmable SoC semiconductors act as the brains for DTV and other digital media displays, providing image processing and optimization for video and computer graphic signals. Sonic's broad implementation on device chipsets is expected to result in RoxioNow-powered storefronts appearing on over 95% of all connected BD and HDTV consumer electronics devices shipping over the next several years.  (press release)  

p.s.  PARTNERSHIP: Sonic Solutions ($SNIC)
           ...... from HOLLYWOOD to HOME.
        Roxio®, RoxioNow™, DivX®, and MainConcept


BONUS:  check MHL player Silicon Image $SIMG 
               ... mobile to HDTV! 

NEAR FIELD COMMUNICATION ~ NXP Semiconductors NV $NXPI

... buzz word of 2011.


NXPI
$12.83
+0.17 
(1.34%) 




NFC  =  "NEAR FIELD COMMUNICATION"
       

1) payment via phone.
  (no more debit/credit cards)

2) transit via phone.
  (no more tolls: roads, bridges, light rail)

3) events via phone.
  (no more tickets: concerts/air travel)

4) identification via phone.
    (no more drivers license, passport?) 

5) keys via phone.
  (no more house keys, car keys, hotel room keys) 


NO MORE WALLET.  NO MORE KEYS.  
        ONE DEVICE.  (one pocket) 

SALES by COUNRY
China = 40%+
Singapore = 15%
Germany = 10%
USA = 10%
Other = 25%


Original Recommendation:  Drogen.

GINGERBREAD Interview: Eric Schmidt

ALL iWANT for CHRISTMAS ~ Apple Inc. $AAPL

iPAD

... with $AAPL on its way to ALL-TIME highs, let's look inside. (again)

Black Friday, Cyber Monday ... iPad 2, iPhone 5, and iParts!

1) Atmel $ATML (touch controllers, in HTC EVO, Samsung Galaxy)
2) Broadcom $BRCM (multiple chips, bluetooth, GPS) 

3) Cirrus Logic $CRUS (audio processors) 

4) Ifineon $IFNNY (mobile unit bought by Intel, Tesla Motors chips)

5) Intersil $ISIL (sockets, USB interface)

6) Linear Tech $LLTC (power control, DC to DC)
7) NXP Semi $NXPI (power management, Near Field Communication)

8) OmniVision $OVTI (image sensors)

9) Qualcomm $QCOM (CDMA for Verizon iPhone)

10) STMicroelectronics $STM (Accelerometer)

11) Skyworks Solutions $SWKS (quad-band)

12) TriQuint $TQNT (power amp)

13) Texas Instruments $TXN (touch sensors)

finviz charts: (click here) 

iPhone 4 

the PARTS-folio

p.s.  RUMOR: iPad 2 initial Printed Circuit Board supplier? $TTMI

disclaimer: BOTD is long $AAPL & $OVTI

PICTURE PERFECT. ~ OmniVision Technologies, Inc. ~ Public, NASDAQ: $OVTI

OmniVision Technologies, Inc. designs and markets high-performance semiconductor image sensors. Its OmniPixel and CameraChip products are highly integrated single-chip CMOS image sensors for mass-market consumer and commercial applications such as mobile phones, notebooks and webcams, digital still and video cameras, security and surveillance systems, entertainment devices, automotive and medical imaging systems.

 World’s Smallest 1080p HD Camera Solution

 “Consumer demand for HD video has never been greater. Display formats are moving to a 16 by 9 aspect ratio, TV broadcast is embracing HD, and social media platforms such as YouTube and Facebook are supporting HD,” said Nick Nam, product marketing manager at OmniVision. “With the OV2720, OmniVision continues to lead the industry in bringing to market innovative, high performance HD solutions, addressing the growing demand for the HD video-enabled devices of the YouTube generation. With the broadest portfolio of HD video products in the industry, we enable our customers to find the right solution for their price, performance and size requirements.”

8-Megapixel RAW CMOS Image Sensor

“Industry research firm Yole Developpement is forecasting that 8-megapixel resolution sensors will hold over a third of the market share for camera phones by 2015,” said Vinoo Margasahayam, product marketing manager for OmniVision. “The smart phone segment is leading this trend towards higher resolution sensors requiring near-DSC quality photography, autofocus functionality and high quality video recording. The OV8820’s ability to deliver high quality, fast frame rate image capture and HD video recording in a compact format meets the critical requirements for next generation mobile handsets, and particularly for smart phones. We have also added some unique features to OV8820 that improve the user experience, such as full field of view HD video with image stabilization, making this sensor a highly attractive product for this fast growing market segment.”

$OVTI's BSI (back side illumination) chip "best of breed" in the iPhone4, 5, and iPad2 ... with front-facing "FACE TIME"!!!
 
      BUY $OVTI on the breakout! 

p.s.  $CALL the TRIPLE A team!!
AMZN      177.25+9.05 (5.38%)
AAPL       314.80+6.07 (1.96%)  
AKAM     51.06+2.18 (4.46%)

Right Here. ~ RightNow Technologies ~ Public, NASDAQ: $RNOW

  ..... can't buy $TWIT or $FBOOK ? ... buy $RNOW!

RightNow Social Experience offers a two-pronged approach to the social web!

First, RightNow Cloud Monitor allows you to monitor conversations on Twitter, YouTube, RSS feeds, your Facebook fan page, and other social channels, and then helps you respond quickly and appropriately.

Second, RightNow communities enable you to integrate social media as a seamless part of your overall brand strategy. Together, they allow you to engage your customers in authentic conversations that increase customer satisfaction, build loyalty, and drive your business goals.

 p.s. the TRIPLE A team pays! 
      .... $AMZN + $AAPL + $AKAM = AAA

TRIPLE A ~ Amazon.com, Inc. NASDAQ: $AMZN $AAPL $AKAM

the TRIPLE A team:

$AMZN 164.17+5.82 (3.68%)

$AAPL  308.43+7.93 (2.64%)

$AKAM 48.76+1.08 (2.27%)

p.s. Am i Diversified? ...bought $GM and $F LEAPs today.      
      (LEAPs 2012 & 2013) ... Ford to $70!

STREAMING or DREAMING? ~ Akamai Technologies Inc. $AKAM

Media & Entertainment	Serves content for 5 of the top 6 online music sites, 29 of the top 30 media/entertainment companies
Business Services	Leaders in information services like Thomson Reuters, and comScore rely on Akamai to provide customers with reliable access.
Financial Services	Protects and enables transactions for Charles Schwab, E*TRADE, Easy-Forex and other top institutions.
Gaming	Enables delivery of gaming content for next-generation consoles from Nintendo, and helps many other companies to meet gamers.
Hotel & Travel	Handles online bookings for world’s largest hotel firm & big brands like Expedia, Marriott, & Travelocity.
Insurance	Six of the top ten US insurance companies rely on Akamai.
Health Care & Life Sciences	Leading life sciences companies like Merck, Phase Forward and Medidata rely on Akamai to reach clinicians and patients worldwide.
Manufacturing & Automotive	Trusted by all of the top auto makers – Toyota, GM, Audi, BMW, and more.
Public Sector	Enables online operations for 10 of the world’s governments, all branches of the US Military, and many other agencies
Retail and Consumer Goods	Enables $100 billion in annual e-commerce revenue; used by over 85% of the top online retailers.
Software and Technology	Used by all of the top 5 anti-virus companies to distribute software online.  LONGS: AAPL, AKAM, MSFT, FCX, IR, CX, HK, FISV and HOV.

UP IN THE AIR! ~ Apple Inc. ~ Public, NASDAQ: $AAPL

the NOV 320s

$5.75 -1.25 (-17.86%)

.... LAUNCH PAD, MISSION CONTROL, MAC OS X LION ... and George Clooney! 

Kinect the Dots ~ Microsoft Corporation ~ Public, NASDAQ: $MSFT

 .... one of my favorite set-ups is BUYING the first PULL-BACK from the BREAKOUT. 

(see purple line support) 

THE CATALYSTS: 

1)  Windows Phone 7 (UI)
2) OFFICE 365 (cloud)
3)  ZUNE rebirth (app store)
4) Embedded automotive platform
5) X-BOX Kinect

PUTS ON THE POP ~ SPDR S&P 500 ETF ~ Public, NYSE: $SPY

the SHORTS:  $SPY OCT 114 PUT (size) ... puts on the pop! 
           current price = .72  (-55%)

the LONGS: $CX $CMLS $HOV $GS $CALL ... and faith in floyd. $HK (calls up 305%, lock in profits!)

FEELIN' FLASHY?! ~ Apple Inc. ~ Public, NASDAQ: $AAPL

... the price action in "The Leader" felt weird today.


BUY $AAPL 280 $PUT 
   4.48+ 1.13 (+33.73%) 

1)  the 1-2-3 push (exhaustion)
2)  up 18% in Sept (too much, too quick)
3)  the Tim Cook rumor (fragile stock)

FLASH CRASH:  when they turn OFF the machines and let us retail kids battle for bids. 

U.N.G. = Usually Not Good. ~ United States Natural Gas Fund, LP ~ Public, NYSE: $UNG

the UNG-deniable bottomless broken fund of fund-lessness.
                            $UNG 6.41-0.22 (-3.33%)

the NAT ASS plays:

$HK  15.00+0.05 (0.33%) 
  ... long common & Oct 16 $CALL
$SD    4.75+0.10 (2.15%)
     ... the San Diego Trader.

p.s. Don't GET COCKY: $EDU 98.29-14.99 (-13.23%) *sold @ cost(ish)

STREAMING PROFITS. ~ $GOOG INC OCT-10 $500.00 $CALL

common versus option?

$GOOG TODAY:


common = 508.28 +18.13 (+3.70%)
option = +81.82%

.... do the math. learn options.

p.s.  SOLD Chi-ner SPEC'rs: 
$CNTF (25%+), $SVN $17.67+0.91(5.43%)
  ... let's just focus on $BIDU! 89.869 +4.139 (+4.83%)*  
* the 90 strike. sold all calls today, will re-buy on next dip! 

YouTube LIVE!!! ~ Google Inc. $GOOG

one word = You Tube Live.

LONG the GOOG oct 500 call

9.20+ 2.25 (+32.37%) 

common: 486.72+ 5.66 (+1.18%)  

the LIVE streaming market is HUGE!!! ... the front-runners Ustream, JustInTv, ...  here comes the $GOOG.

OPEN MIND TRADING. ~ OpenTable Inc ~ Public, NASDAQ: $OPEN

... table for one? 


OPEN
60.73 -1.15 
(-1.86%)

1) the GAP & RUN play. (stay long above gap) 
2) new ALL-TIME high. (everyone who bought is in-the-money) 
3) thinly traded, high growth P/E (still under the radar)
4) up 138% YTD. (one of the strongest stocks. buy high, sell higher)

Electronic Reservation Book (ERB) ... free, real-time online reservations. 

p.s. R.S.V.P. A.S.A.P. 

the TRIFECTA. ~ $NFLX $AAPL $DTV

... simple. easy.

go NAD!

Netflix, Apple, Directv

p.s. want more? ... watch BOTD.tv! (click here) 

SIGN of the BULL. ~ Beazer Homes USA, Inc. ~ NYSE: $BZH

... leave it to BEAZER!

4.30

+0.24 (5.91%)

 

BOTD 2010, "... homes don't build themselves." 

 

the $3 DOLLAR HOMEYS:  $HOV, $BZH, & $SPF 

 

p.s.  Chi-ner HOTELS = $SVN $HMIN ... and the a/c $HEAT!  

 

 

LISTEN to the BOLLINGER BAND. ~ SPDR S&P 500 ETF NYSE: $SPY

....bought the "bollinger band dip" (again)

Target #1 = median of Bollinger Band
Target #2 = top of Bollinger Band

the LONGS: up big today.

p.s. $HOV  3.68 +0.26 (7.60%) ...reported AH

... respect the $3 dollar hommies.
$SPF 3.75+0.26 (7.45%)

$BZH 3.79+0.33 (9.54%)

ALL EYES ON JOBS ~ Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)

$243.10 
 +0.60‎ (0.25%‎)

LONG: the 240 $CALL  

(sold 1/2 in-the-money) 

JOBS:  Steve or unemployment? 
    ... which is more important.   


LIVE-STREAMING of the EVENT. (click here) 

p.s. LONGS:  

MAGICAL: $AAPL  & $TQNT

#EARL: $UCO $HK $HAL 

HOMMIES: $HOV & $BZH 

CHI-NER: $EDU $CNTF $BIDU $CSIQ (added today)   
FINZ: $HBAN & $BAC  (worthless)  

the EM PROXY: $CX & $TGB

Bank ON America! ~ Bank of America Corporation (Public, NYSE:BAC)

NEW 52 WEEK LOW in $BAC. ($12.78)

LONG the BAC SEPT 14 CALLS @ .14 (and .18)

p.s.  TOP COMMONS: $BIDU, $CBOE, $HOV, $BZH, $HK, $EDU

i ♥ OPTIONS! ~ CBOE Holdings, Inc (Public, NASDAQ:CBOE)

... there is but one option.

BUY ON THE DIP!!

... down 28.87% since IPO.

note: the anticipated launch of "C2"
       ... an alternative all-electronic exchange.

CBOE Holdings, Inc. (CBOE Holdings) is THEE options exchange of the United States. CBOE, in addition to its core options trading business, provides marketplaces for trading futures contracts and cash equities through its subsidiary, CBOE Futures Exchange, and its affiliate CBOE Stock Exchange.  CBOE trades options with terms of up to nine months on the stocks of over 2,300 corporations that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NYSE Amex, LLC (NYSE Amex) and National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation (NASDAQ). In addition, it also trades long-term options, known as Long-term Equity AnticiPation Securities (LEAPS), on approximately 800 stocks with terms of up to 39 months.  i HEART options! 

$CBOE 23.11 -0.01 (-0.04%)
  .... slow motion. 



p.s. the $GM re-IPO :  must be nice. wish i could BK and re-liquidize!  ..... only in America. 

CUT(TING CREW) YOUR LOSSES ?? ~ SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY)

   
$SPY
 109.30

-3.07 
(-2.74%)

p.s. After-Hours ....  with Johnny
CSCO  21.85 -1.88 (-7.92%) *long CSCO "worthless" 24 calls!

"I can hear it calling me" ~ SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY)

... watch the gaps.

... watch the dips.

... watch BOTD.tv! 






top pick: CSCO AUG 24 calls.

the PLUMBING of the INTERWEB(S) ~ Cisco Systems, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CSCO)

BUY BUY BUY!

CSCO August 24s
0.50-0.06 (-10.71%)

.... $CALL the plumber!

the REGIONAL Runners! ~ Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (Public, NASDAQ:HBAN)

.... you must be in the race to win. 

REGIONAL BANKS: $HBAN, $FITB, $BBT, $RF ... buy "the runners"

p.s. "homes don't build themselves"
... $HOV 4.65+0.28 (6.41%)

how about that $GABBA $CALL ?

JUICY. ~ Bucyrus International, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:BUCY)

SHOVELIN' COAL for profit!

LONG $BUCY , the common.
(calls a bit too thin)

BUCY BUYS @
60.87+0.07 (0.12%)
60.99+0.19 (0.31%)

BUCYRUS has manufacturing facilities in Australia, China, the Czech Republic, Germany, Mexico, the United Kingdom and the United States, and service and sales centers in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, England, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Peru, Russia, South Africa and the United States.

p.s. yo $GABBA $GABBA!!!
  ... Goldman, Apple, Baidu, Bucy, AIG ... $CALL to action.