Thursday, February 26, 2009

Hungry for PROFITS? ~ SHORT FOOD! ~ Tyson Foods, Inc. (Public, NYSE:TSN)

check the charts.   most "food stocks" are at or near their 52 week lows ... the "people still need to eat in a recession" logic is not the issue.  people will continue to consume edibles, but these are stocks, pieces of paper that GO LOWER!!!  ....  speaking of pieces of paper, are any of you SHORT $KMB? ... i know its boring.  butt. it works.  twice daily.  isn't that what this is all about?  bringing home the bacon!! 

~ hmmmm, why are "our" food shorts not on lows? (DF, TSN, PNRA) ... why am i so stubborn?  we should've just gone with the "trenders" like $K, $KFT, ... note to self: remember "the easiest trade usually is." 

p.s. ... 0o0pPss,  forgot to add $KFT to the picture. doh!   

p.p.s.  what's for dinner?  pick another restaurant to SHORT.  EAT? CAKE!? 

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

MURDER INC. ~ McDermott International (Public, NYSE:MDR)

MDR from $6 to over $12, the longs got their 100% and even a little more with a recent high of $14ish.  You've watched BOTD trade OIL names successfully.  From HK to CAM, with the OIL stocks of 2009 and most recently on the SHORT side with XOM and RIG.   Today we added *short* MDR (hedged with long $DXO under $2) ... go team! 

p.s.   where's Ja Rule?  *PUT IT ON ME* 

Monday, February 23, 2009

This MARKET is RIG'd! ~ Transocean LTD. (Public, NYSE:RIG)

 BOTD "pumped" the MARCH 55s with $RIG above $60.


RIG 55.46 
-4.06 (-6.82%)
(daily low of $54.81)
.... WINNER! 

@ High Of Day (HOD)  

RIG drilled $55
we took profits.

Yes. we still think RIG
 goes lower, .... but this is
 how the game is played.  


 "plan your work, work your plan." 
 ~ P. Sherman 42 Wallaby Way

p.s. Catch the RECOs Semi-Real-time on , ... halla! 

Friday, February 20, 2009

the SHORT History of The United States! ~ Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) & Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC)

Our FRIDAY focus was on $WFC & $BAC  ... coming into this historic trading day we "owned" WFCOB the March 10 puts.  ... selling FAZ Thursday and adding WFC puts turned out to be a blessing, but never thought we'd actually SELL those March 10s in-the-money!!??!  

 How often do the BIGGEST BANKS in the (short) HISTORY of The UNITED STATES of AMERICA trade down 30%+ ??! ... Bank of America hit $2.53!!  Wells Fargo hit $8.81!!  ... only to end the day down 3% and 9% respectively.  


   EMOTION is the GREATEST.   Many traders say to take emotion out of the game,  but our faithful readers know we are obnoxious, intense, and best of all ... EMOTIONAL. 

How did you "feel" with WFC down 15% hitting new lows???  The banking system is done. right? ... and then how about down 30%+ !!??? ... the world is really over, holy shit! ... still holding some WFCOB  ... the words "I AM THE GREATEST!!!!" kept flashing across the insides of my eyeballs.  When we "feeeeel" that good, it's a sure tell.  TIME to SELL!!!! 

SOLD OUT:  WFCOB ... we took 1/2 off in the morning ($1.90) and the other 1/2 near HOD!  ($3.10)  ... basically taking profits with WFC down 15%ish and 30%ish ... using the common stock as our indicator.  RECIPE for SUCCESS! 

VOTE NO!  ... with Friday being FEBRUARY OPTIONS EXPIRATION, we had to take final profits in our Exxon (XOM) *puts  (XOMNO) , from XOM $80+ to $70.61 ... a sad day for one of our BEST trades of ohhh 9 ... original purchase .73cents , sold final leftovers north of $4.  the new OIL short is $RIG above $60.  *MARCH 55 PUTS* 

WINNER:  $BA is fatty.  *short* from $44  ... consistency pays 20%+!! (stop hit @ $36) 

EXPIRED WORTHLESS:   MSFT the floating fatty. we couldn't sink billy. (not this month) ... the BIGGEST LOSER!!!  



the BAC "calls of confidence" (part 4)

.... if the banks can rally Monday, resulting in some soft of laughable temporary "double-bottom" ... this could get real profitable, stay tuned.  

BANK-of-NOTE:  watch $C and the $2 level.  friday it was a great indicator on the strength of the rally. (daily low of $1.61)  After Hours: 2.20 +0.25 (12.82%)  Feb 20 8:00pm ET

HOT RECO:  *short* $AMP from $16.50 ... a "friend" of BOTD called friday to say, ... "there's trouble at Ameriprise Financial."  (stock tips from random "friends" usually don't work, not sure why we think this one might be different) 

p.s. Team BOTD knows.
 71.8% of "us" got it right. hmm, who are the 28.2% non-believers?

Get SHORT, stay SHORT. 

Thursday, February 19, 2009

BREAK on THROUGH! ~ NEW LOW = 7447 ~ Dow Jones Industrial Average

palindrome is a word, phrase, number or other sequence of units that can be read the same way in either direction (the adjustment of punctuation and spaces between words is generally permitted).    7447. 

Today the DOW broke the "O" bottom.  (7449.38)

Step #1 in our DOW 5000-6000 thesis complete. 
Step #2 = Break the Palindrome Bottom (7447)

Team BOTD took profits in FAZ 47.  (sold north of $66) ...   Fazzzzam!    But feeling "fuck the banks" naked we quickly added *WFC puts on Wells Fargo's mini midday pop to 12.73ish ... next, we all watched WFC break open a 12 pack as the DOW broke the "O" bottom. ( WFC daily low $11.94)  ... we own the MARCH 10s (33,000 contracts traded today)  hmmmm, go team!  (WFCOB) 

 *We want the WORLD and we want it NOW!* 

     *the KILLER awoke before DAWN* 

How great is StockTwits???! .... GO TEAM! 

 Gold is over-rated, but may run higher.   Miners are just plain over-priced.  NEM is a stock.  Stocks go lower.  Buy NEM puts.  

p.s.  who caught the $DXO day trade? (winner!) ... and what about *SHORT* $RIG over $60.  *MARCH 55 puts*  ... TEAMWORK makes the DREAM work. 

 DOW 5000-6000.  The End. 

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Go PAPERLESS! ~ *SHORT* Kimberly-Clark Corporation (Public, NYSE:KMB)

KMB downgraded by someone today?! ..hmmm,  with 2 strong buys, 3 buy ratings, 9 holds, and ZERO!!! sell recommendations.  hmmm, who's selling what here?  Sure,.. plop, plop,  KMB sells toilet paper, and blah, blah, people still need to crap in a recession, blah, plop ...  Banks are full of SHIT PAPER.  KMB is SHIT PAPER. literally.  NEW LOWS.  DAILY ... $48 and no support on the break.  (target 30's) 

p.s.  *SHORT* $KMB ... this has been on the "Get SHORT, stay SHORT" / "SHORT SOMETHING" list for about a week.    hmmm, the key IS a good exit.  where's the TP?!!?  

SHORT FOOD:  see KFT, K, etc ... BOTD "the over-anticipator" stubbornly holding short TSN, DF, PNRA

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Exxon is a FATTY! ~ Exxon Mobil Corporation (Public, NYSE:XOM)

the DOW is XOM heavy.


BOTD wins. 

VIXNH = not happy.  lost ass.  VIX spikes 18%

p.s.  WINNER:  the FAZ up 20%  *take some profits*

Saturday, February 14, 2009


$FAZ 47.00 BuyOnTheDip 

The FAZ Move #47 ... buy when under $47 , sell when over $47.  the KISS method. 

 ... versus the "voluptuous" VIXen ... if we rally,  the $VIX breaks $40 and "goes down".

the puts
 of pleasure(less)  ... VIXNH*

*pick a "good time" to sell on Tuesday & roll-out to the MARCH 40s. (VIXOH) ohhhhh 9! 

   The MARCH put roll ... 
~ "feelin' frisky" try the BIG BUY 30s. (VIXOF)


Thursday, February 12, 2009

The BULL(ish) HEDGE!?! ~ *puts* CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX(Chicago Options: ^VIX)


 ... looking for a way to play the LONG side without buying stocks?  ... hmmmm.
52 week range: 
 15.82 - 89.53


Today we watched the VIX vs. the DOW 

... as the DOW kissed 7,700 (7693.98) , ... the VIX was complacent at best.  hmmm.   the LOST factor of FEAR! 

The VIX $41.25 - 3.28 (-7.37%)

The VIX "bullish bubble puts" ... VIXNH!!
$0.80 - 0.04 (-4.76%)
*BOTD added as the VIX turned RED @ .46 

 ... did you see the HUGE buzzer beater buy of the APRIL 30 PUTs??? (yesterday) ... *hat tip @coffeygrinds 


The 5 Day.

Buy On The Dip!

the FEB 40s ... expire next Wednesday the 18th, hmmm. 

... look to add some MARCH puts *roll-out! 

p.s.  who caught the $KO "pop" today? 

p.p.s.  still holding XOM puts o' passion & RIMM leftovers.  not sure why.  

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

PASSION of the STORM! ~ Research In Motion Limited (USA) (Public, NASDAQ:RIMM)

BOTD finds Jesus! 

The RIMM 50s. 
+2.52 (+741.18%)

... was up 1000%+ *


BOLDly STORMing the PEARL CURVE!?!  ... this trade is a great example of SHITTY money management.  Today was a gift from GOD.   We'd love to say this was all part of "a plan", but obviously it wasn't.   Sure, we are negative on the entire market and RIMM was up "too much, too quick", but how did we let these puts fall 70%+? ... don't ask.  take profits, don't let it happen again.  *still holding a few leftover RFYNJ, we've got another week til expiration! 


up another 41.13% 

... was up 80%+ *


XOM is a fatty.  And like a greedy glutton, BOTD still holding 1/2 our XOMNO.    *DOW 5000-6000*

"reach out and touch faith" 

NEW RULE:   "Trade Less, Make More."  ... treat cash as if it's your first born child.  this is not a game.  the market is becoming increasingly difficult ...  this will be RULE # -1

p.p.s.  fuck $MS.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Puts of PASSION. ~ *SHORT* Exxon Mobil Corporation (Public, NYSE:XOM)


XOMNO... FEB 75s
$1.41 +0.87 (+161.11%)

... XOM
 $76.14 -3.34 (-4.20%)

the DOW is XOM heavy.  DOW 5000-6000. 

the BuyOnTheDip XOM puts "twit out" yesterday, and again at 6am. 

 ** ticker-feed snapshot from above. 

congrats to Soren & Howard. StockTwits is the real deal.   

p.s.  "i" still own BAC calls and GNW.  not sure why or how?  hedged in a circle.   "we" sat as our BAC "calls of confidence" went from 116%+ to -68%.  options are fun.  i had to hold. BOTD has a "chunky" long term SHORT portfolio.  you know the names. the SHORT SOMETHING list.  DF, PNRA (milk & food) , BBY, BBBY (retail) , KUB, BA (machinery/airplanes) *did you see X today, hmm, heard it's OFF the conviction sell list at Goldman, those confused convictioner/convictionors?!  PCLN, MSFT puts, RIMM puts (techish),  PTR & the XOM puts of passion! (china, oil & more), KMB (the economy & toilet paper, LOL.) .... NITE with some leftover MS "spread the board" puts .... fuck $MS and their "clean book."  ... the BOTD "play" is buy a bunch of "chunky" short positions and trade same-month-calls around those long-term-shorts.  GET SHORT, STAY SHORT.  DOW 5000-6000.  

LONG:  DXO (stop @ cost, $2.36) , DLB (the sound of hedgness?), VIP (the russian runs) ... the only sizable long is NOTHING! 

p.p.s. we also nib'd  some SMN early today.  up 12%, looose stop .... MON was bove $85, pfft.  MON is NOT an $80 stock ...  SMN also gets you "supposedly short" FCX, MON, NUE, DD, X, AA, APD, DOW, NEM etc. 

p.p.p.s.  watch COF. 

Friday, February 6, 2009

BOTD = Bank of the DAY!! ~ Bank of America Corporation (Public, NYSE:BAC)

0.63 +0.26 (+70.27)
Bring Your Own ... Bailout Week?
 Baby Wipes?  Bingo Wasps? 

EARLY today we added the BAC 7.50 calls 

WEEK of LOSERS:  MS, MS, MS ... MSFT, RIMM, REW, etc... hosed on the CISCO dip, took profits on our "calls of confidence" daaays toooo early, ... the list goes on. the week doesn't.  it's over. move on. game on. 

... cheers to Seizure & BIG MIKE, who caught the comment and jumped in at 5.50ish

 Weekend Homework: Re-reread POST #1 from 2009. 

p.s.  The BOTD 5000-6000 target still stands. 

  Have a STIMULATING Weekend. 

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Flip the SCRIPT ~ *SHORT* Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (Public, NYSE:GS)

the FEB 80s

Put that in yer pipe! 

... Goldman loves $88?

today we sold our GS & FCX "calls of confidence" for NICE PROFITS! ... the FCX calls up 125%+ had a little help from ole' Jimbo, thanks buddy ... and GS hit $88, then jumped an extra $2 after we sold, doh! Enough is enough ... $GS Puts on the POP! 

p.s  Johnny C,  Da King & BOTD. *click 


... chin up. 

...  chin down. 

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Boldly Storming the Pearl Curve! ~ Research In Motion Limited (USA) (Public, NASDAQ:RIMM)

with RIMM sho(r)ts! 

the FEB 50 puts. 

~ also SHORT the BANK of BILLY! ~
 *MSFT feb 18 puts @ .52 cents! 

LONG: REW under $75  *Honest Johnny*

The x-X hedge!  

FCX feb 30 calls 
$0.33 +o.o6 (+22.22%)

sold our X puts, but held the FCX calls ... hmmmm. 

"Calls of CONFIDENCE!" 

the "SHORT SOMETHING" list:  BA, KUB, PTR, PCLN, DF, NITE, BBY, BBBY, (might as well add BBBB, LOL)  ... looking to add RESTAURANT SHORTS!!  

top "short" pick:  PNRA $47.82 +1.98 (+4.32%)

Panera Bread (PNRA) loves wheat!! ... locking in its total 2009 wheat needs for a price of $9.50 a bushel, vs. prices earlier last year of $13 or $14. March wheat futures are trading around $5.66.  hmmmmm.

       "Hey Mr. Market .... feel like dancin' ?" 

p.s.  Stanley "crying baby" Morgan drinks $DF.  hatred.

Wednesday EARNINGS watchlist:  

before the open:  

after the close:  
AKAM, NLY, BBBB, DLB, EOG, EFX, HAIN, PRU, PHM, V, SUN, and .... the great TECH forecaster, Mr. CISCO himself ... John T. Chambers!  (*if johnny tells the truth, this tech rally is done)  ..... GO TEAM! 

Monday, February 2, 2009

Who's got CONVICTION!??! ~ United States Steel Corporation (Public, NYSE:X)


+0.95 (+37.25%)

*BOTD ahead of the downgrade! (GS adds X to conviction sell list)

 the "engineering-unaware" wins! .... cheers to my new favorite blog ... FIREBONES!   *much like OIL, .... everything needs STEEL!!! from the CNC machine to the vertical lathe ... BOTD wins!

p.s. the BOTD "sleeper" short KUB down 25% YTD.