The PURE PLAY on PLAY. ~ Zynga, Inc. ~ $ZNGA

Zynga = The PURE PLAY on PLAY.

 1) VIRTUAL GOODS = REAL PROFITS!

2) DOWN 15% from IPO 

 RISK: high valuation @ 6B+

LONG $ZNGA 

PURE PLAY: MOBILE GAMING $GLUU

 Glu Mobile

... looks like Mathew Drapkin, the "insider", tried to game the ZNGA IPO.  Not sure he got the pop he was looking for, but it creates a nice floor at $2.99-$3.00  *stop loss level

PURE PLAY:  MACAU GAMING $MPEL

Melco Crown
20%-30%+ YOY growth


 p.s. HEDGE:  $SPY JAN 123 PUTS


the market is a ...

The HIGHER LOW. ~ SPDR S&P 500 ETF $SPY

 

DEFENDING THE HIGHER LOW. 

LEVELS

1) RED bullish trend line from the low. (filled gap/top of base)

2) ORANGE bullish trend line from bottom of base. (unfilled gap) *

2) GREEN horizontal "higher low" support line.

* favorite buy zone (orange)
     ... gap fill area, oversold stochastic level, higher low intact.

p.s. watch/wait
   ... for the breakout spike in $TLT for a top/equity bottom.

the AUCTION KING. ~ Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers $RBA

... when the market crashed in 2008, it took the mom & pop construction company with it.  They borrowed money to finance NEW equipment for NEW jobs, then it all stopped.

 * NO JOBS, NO WORK *

can't make that lease/loan payment ?  ... equipment gets REPO'd!!!

Ritchie Bros current INVENTORY: (their loss, $RBA's gain)

• Construction Equipment (21251)
• Transportation Equipment (9443)
• Support and Consumer Items (9189)
• Agricultural Equipment (4254)

• Asphalt/Aggregate/Concrete (3753)
• Lifting and Material Handling (1923)
• Oil and Gas (1104)
• Mining (956)

• Utility and Power (540)
• Forestry (207)
• Property (Real Estate) (42)
• Marine (41)

 ... the world's largest industrial auctioneer, $RBA! 

risk: used equipment market is still weak.

reward: stock acted well during this week's sell-off. *

November 1st was a 15 month low, chart shows capitulation ... BUY! 

*14%+ SHORT INTEREST

full disc:  no pos, yet.

the QUADRUPLE TOP in the TRIPLE Q's? ~ NASDAQ: $QQQ

 ... i see 1, 2, 3, 4 Q's at the top of this chart  ... they used to call her the QUAD Q's, but they don't anymore.

"There's NO such thing as a QUADRUPLE TOP." ~ Richard Bias

Which way from here?  ... choose your own adventure.

 OVERALL TREND: UP

BULLISH TARGET:  $76 ... measured move of $16 from the $60 breakout (green arrow) *overly optimistic

NEUTRAL: $58ish ... sideways forever (light blue) *not likely

RANGE BOX: back to the bottom of the range ... from the low 50's to the high 50's & back again.(orange arrow) *all of 2011

BEARISH BREAKDOWN: $42ish, giving back the entire 16 point Sept 10 to Feb 11 bull run. (red arrow) *be prepared
 
FULL DISC:  Long Jan 58 CALL   

PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF)
(Public, NASDAQ:QQQ)

The Collapse of CRUDE?! ~ ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil $UCO

or a PEAK OIL inverse H&S ?

UCO
$42.41 -1.08 (-2.48%)


Ultra Crude Oil $UCO
3 MONTH CHANGE:  -32.63%

DEMAND for OIL:  HIGH

SUPPLY of OIL:  LOW




... BUY 'ULTRA CRUDE OIL' ON THE DIP!



LONG: UCO & USO calls

The StockTwits Edge! ~ with @BuyOnTheDip $$

The StockTwits Edge

 

The StockTwits Edge:

Part One: Trend Following.
Chapter 1: Find Trends, Ride Them, and Get Off (Howard Lindzon, @howardlindzon).
Chapter 2: Trade, Trend, Tail (Keith McCullough, @KeithMcCullough).
Chapter 3: Don’t Quit (Michael K. Dawson, @TrendRida).
Chapter 4: Know Thyself (Chris Peruna, @chrisperuna).
Chapter 5: Insider Information Is Reflected in the Charts (Keith Kern, @stt2318).

Part Two: Value Investing.
Chapter 6: Margin of Safety (Todd Sullivan, @toddsullivan).
Chapter 7: The Bean Screen (Daniel Miller and Jason Robinson, @wallstreetbean).
Chapter 8: Fallen Angels (Michael Bigger, @biggercapital).
Chapter 9: Dividends Don’t Lie (Eddy Elfenbein, @crossingwallstreet).

Part Three: Day Trading.
Chapter 10: Only Price Pays (Brian Shannon, @alphatrends).
Chapter 11: Intraday Earnings Momentum Gap Trade (John Lee, @weeklyTA).
Chapter 12: Trading the News (Mike Bellafiore, @smbcapital).
Chapter 13: Intraday Momentum (Steven Spencer, @sspencer_smb).
Chapter 14: The Underlying Psychology of Large Players (Gilbert Mendez, @smbcapital).

Part Four: Swing Trading.
Chapter 15: Flags and Wedges (Joe Donohue, @upsidetrader).
Chapter 16: Breakout from a Tight Base (@chessNwine).
Chapter 17: The Base is Everything (HCPG, @HCPG).
Chapter 18: Trading People, Not Stocks (Joey Fundora, @downtowntrader).
Chapter 19: The Top Down Technician (Greg Harmon, @harmongreg).
Chapter 20: Identifying Trend Shifts (Derek Hernquist, @derekhernquist).
Chapter 21: A Chart Will Never Lie to You (Sunrise Trader, @SunriseTrader).
Chapter 22: The Short Squeeze Trade (Frank Zorrila, @zortrades).
Chapter 23: The Price Tells the Story (Derald Muniz, @1nvestor).
Chapter 24: Force Confirmations, Not Trades (Nick Fenton, @nickfenton).
Chapter 25: The Birth of a New Trend (Ivan Hoff, @ivanhoff).
Chapter 26: The Trend Intensity Breakout Setup (Pradeep Bonde, @stockbee).

Part Five: Options Trading.
Chapter 27: Unusual Options Activity (Joe Kunkle, @OptionRadar).
Chapter 28: Put Ratio Spread (Jared Woodard, @condoroptions).
Chapter 29: Know What You Don’t Know (Adam Warner, @agwarner).
Chapter 30: There Is Always an Option (Steven Place, @stevenplace).
Chapter 31: Selling Premium (Darren Miller, @attitrade).
Chapter 32: The New High Dip (Chris Stauder, @BuyOnTheDip).

Part Six: Forex Trading.
Chapter 33: They Call Me Mrs. Cable (Lydia Idem, @faithmight).
Chapter 34: The Mind of a Chartist (Raghee Horner, @ragheehorner).

Part Seven: The Art of Trading.
Chapter 35: Trading Is An Art (The Fly, @the_real_fly).
Chapter 36: Embrace the Tape (Quint Tatro, @tickerville).
Chapter 37: Macro Setups at the Crest of Structural Change (Gregor Macdonald, @GregorMacdonald).
Chapter 38: Broken Butterfly Formation (Anne-Marie Baiynd, @AnneMarieTrades).
Chapter 39: Always Happy, Never Satisfied (Joshua Brown, @reformedbroker).
Chapter 40: One Step Ahead of the Herd (John Benedict, @geckojb).
Chapter 41: Change is the Only Constant (Steve Gomez and Andy Lindloff, @todaytrader).
Chapter 42: The Kirk Report (Charles E. Kirk, @thekirkreport).
Chapter 43: Stick with Names You Know (Ronald Roll, @gtotoy).
Chapter 44: Massive Trends and the Trajectory of Noise (Phil Pearlman, @ppearlman).
Chapter 45: We Have Met the Enemy, and It Is Us (Abdel Ibrahim, @RatioTrader).
Chapter 46: A Contrarian at Heart (John Welsh, @johnwelshtrades).

p.s.  BuyOnTheDip will be hosting a retweet contest for a coveted "BOTD" signed copy!    ... stay tuned for details. 

BTFD = BUY THE * FRACKING * DIP! ~ Halliburton Company $HAL & Schlumberger Limited $SLB

FRACKING: Hydraulic Fracturing or Hydrofracking is a process in which fluid is injected at high pressure into oil or gas deposits to fracture the rock formations and increase the recovery rate.

THE HALLIBURTON LOOPHOLE of 2005:   the Dick/Bush Energy Bill exempted drillers from having to disclose the chemicals used during hydraulic fracturing.

THE US FRAC ACT of 2009:  Fracturing Responsibility and Awareness to Chemical Act is a bill that would allow the EPA to regulate hydraulic fracturing in the US and require the energy industry to reveal what chemicals are being used.  (the 111th Congress adjourned on Jan 3rd, 2011 without taking action on the FRAC ACT, and the 112th Congress has not re-introduced the bill)

HYDRAULIC FRACTURING:  9 out of 10 onshore wells now use FRACKING!

ADDITIVES & CONSTITUENTS:

KING HAL (Halliburton) :

... buy on the "oversold" dip!











SCHLUMB LORD (Schlumberger) :

... the $90 magnet.

(buy in the low 80's)









FACT or FICTION?  ... GasLand.


THE TRUTH?  ... of propaganda!




CHINA is FRACKING NUTS!!
 In April 2011 CHINA completed its first horizontal shale gas well in Sichuan.  The ministry of land and resources calculates the size of the shale gas reserves at 26,000 billion cubic meters - more than 10 times the known holdings of conventional natural gas.  The world's largest user of energy just started fracking, it's still early ... BUY THE FRACKING DIP! 



p.s.  Happy FRACKING Mother's Day!

The ZYNGA of CHINA ~ Perfect World Co., Ltd. (ADR) $PWRD

Launched MMORPGs

• Perfect World
• Legend of Martial Arts
• Perfect World II
• Zhu Xian
• Chi Bi
• Pocketpet Journey West
• Battle of the Immortals
• Fantasy Zhu Xian
• Forsaken World
• Dragon Excalibur
• Empire of the Immortals (under unlimited closed beta testing)

SHARE REPURCHASE PROGRAM = $100 million 

CHINA STOCKS: $BIDU, $SINA, $SOHU, $SNDA, $CYOU, $GAME, $GA, $KONG, $PWRD

STOCK PERFORMANCE YTD:

SINA     +80%

BIDU    + 52%

KONG  +52%

SOHU  +50%

NTES   +46%

CYOU  +22%

GA        +20%

GAME  +15%

SNDA  +10%

PWRD +6.09%  (dog of the tao)

p.s. The IPO Buzz:  ZYNGA, LinkedIn, Twitter, Groupon, LivingSocial, and the FaceBook. 

DISCLOSURE:  iOwn $PWRD (common) 

$PUT on your BEAR HAT! ~ $SPY S&P 500 ETF

The EARL of ORANGE. $USO ~ United States Oil Fund LP (ETF)

40.87 +1.19‎ (3.00%‎)

NCAA PICK = Syracuse OrangeMen

Obama & BOTD believe the Syracuse Orange men will advance to the Sweet 16.

BET ON BIEBER! ~ RealD (Public, NYSE:RLD) $RLD

REAL PROFITS in 3D.  

 “Driven by an increasing 3D film slate and growing consumer demand for an immersive 3D visual experience, the 3D box office continued to expand in the third quarter of fiscal 2011. Our ability to garner over an estimated 80% of the domestic 3D box office and, we believe, an increasing share of the international 3D box office, serves as a testament to the superior technology and value proposition that RealD delivers to exhibitors. We look forward to enabling the continued growth of 3D cinema through the ongoing worldwide deployment of our premium RealD 3D cinema systems which deliver a distinctive and immersive 3D visual experience to consumers.” ~ Michael V. Lewis, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of RealD.




RECO:  buy RealD $RLD
 ... as a sympathy "immersion" play on DISNEY earnings!

"BET ON BIEBER!" 

... the REAL play: Cars 2. 

p.s. Respect the OG ... 

The GLOBAL STOCK THEMES of 2011 ~ $STUDY $ELEVEN with @BuyOnTheDip

THE AUTO REVOLUTION 

The GLOBAL AUTO BOOM of 2011.  

#1   STOCK of the YEAR = FORD. 
    

                      $F LEAPS = Long-term Equity AnticiPation Security
                               Jan 2012 & Jan 2013 >>> $25 dollar strike

#2          Go Merica!  $GM front-month calls = Jan/Feb/March 35s
                      ... roll as we go.  $50 by SUMMER 2011. 

               *General Motors closed 2010 on NEW all-time HIGHS.

  ... the market cap battle of 2011, from 50 to 75 BILLION.   

BRAZIL, BRAZIL, BRAZIL.

The PLAYS:

#1   $VALE  = Iron + Nickel + Silver + Copper + Coal + Cobalt + Aluminum + Potash + Platinum ... global provider, there is no FUTURE without MINING.

#2   the BBB "BRAZILIAN BIG BOYS"
       Oil & Gas $PBR and 4%+ divy
       Energy $CPL and 6.5%+ divy.
       Water $SBS ... Sao Paulo.

Lazy ETF buys:
   LARGE = $EWZ 
                small = $BRF

*Full List of Brazil STOCKS (here)


THE TECHNOLOGY TAKEOVER

The PLAYS:

#1  one company, one stock
    ... the GREAT WEALTH CREATOR = $AAPL (calls)
In 2011 we'll get iPhone5 and iPad2, do you need more catalysts?

#2  M&A 2011 ... Unlocking the VALUE @ Yahoo!
            $YHOO (calls) ... sell, merge, break-up, something!

#3  The 'STREAM' Theme:  AKAMAI is VIDEO ON DEMAND.
       ... buy the OVER SOLD dip for 2011.  TAKE OVER CANDIDATE.  

 


ENERGY EXPANSION

The PLAYS:

#1  ON-SHORE: Faith in Floyd C. Wilson, CEO of PetroHawk $HK ... natural gas shale property.  TAKEOVER @ $35+ in 2011.
   *Floyd sold fayetteville shale properties to $XOM in DEC 2010.  Petrohawk is setting up as a pure play on HAYNESVILLE SHALE!  (worth over 7 Billion)

#2  OFF-SHORE:  the DIAMOND of deep water drilling! $DO

 
 #3  SERVICES: KING $HAL = Halliburton 
          GLOBAL ... completion, production, drilling, and evaluation.

... it's been a BUY ON THE DIP market since March 2009.
       Why would 2011 be any different?  BoTd.

FULL DISCLOSURE:  Long of $F leaps, $GM calls, $VALE calls, $AAPL calls, $YHOO calls, $AKAM common and calls, $HK common and calls.