Tuesday, January 20, 2009

BLAME it on the FAZ! ~ FINANCIAL BEAR 3X (Public, NYSE:FAZ)


THESIS = CONFIRMED.

FAZ $88.15
+25.54 (40.79%)

"Get SHORT, stay SHORT."

.... BOTD 2009.
 



the AMIGOS:
SRS+11.87 (19.97%) 
EEV+8.84 (15.13%)
SDP +1.99 (4.55%)

The "SHORT SOMETHING!" List:
NamePriceChange
DF18.10-0.34 (-1.84%) *added today
X30.10-2.48 (-7.61%)
PTR74.60-5.56 (-6.94%)
AMR10.46-0.94 (-8.25%)
KUB28.61-1.03 (-3.48%)
PCLN66.04-5.09 (-7.16%)


The BUCKET Approach Revisited :  $BGZ & $TZA 
(yes, we already took profits in BGZ & TZA, the bucket pays!) 

The "Spread the Board" Move #123:  

 Bank of America (BAC)

 ... hmmmm, guess we shouldda held those MAY 10s.  doh! 



The TNA LOGIC!!??!:    Being "this" SHORT, we buy BIG on DIPS!  That's the whole plan, OWN a 'CHUNKY' short position,  ... trade the dips.  Today we killed 3 soldiers trying to "pick bottoms" in FAS.  Each time we 'chunked' a 15K buy, with a tight 1% stop loss.  DEAD, DEAD, and DEAD.   to be continued tomorrow. 

DON'T FORGET!!! ... 

the "calls of confidence" method. 

The FEB 50s!!!

winner. 




p.s.  the BOTD longs:  PBR, SINA, and FRM *added today, not sure why.    GO TEAM

61 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi BOTD,
where do you see the ultimate target of FAZ? for this week and long term? Thanks

BUY ON THE DIP said...

FAZ to 110+ ??? we want that double!


and we might "put" JRCC back on the short bus, it's an $8 stock. down 10% today. and COST looks like it still wants to pay. hmmmm.

cheers!

BUY ON THE DIP said...

ideally we hold FAZ and SRS until dow 5000-6000.

BUY ON THE DIP said...

and SCC looks like a stud too.


our favorite short is still KUB.
followed by X and PTR.

BUY ON THE DIP said...

I WILL BUY $FAS in the morning. again. and again.

tight stops, we will catch this rally.

tempted to buy UYG calls too.

we'll see.

Anonymous said...

WYNN looks weak...

Anonymous said...

Oh so BOTD,
you're expecting just a morning rebound (oversold) rally that will possibly end negative by end of day? or you think this short term rally will last 1 or 2 days?
Man, I regret having sold my FAZ and SRS at 58 and 66 respectively... I got in at 55 on FAZ and 52 in SRS...but if I held til today, I woulda made a killing... but it does seem overbought, hence my reason for asking... I do have a feeling FAZ and SKF will probably go higher due to the decimation of the financials as shown on today's new low in XLF... just want to get a good entry point back into FAZ and SRS without being screwed by some reversal rally

BUY ON THE DIP said...

All we can do is watch the big names C, WFC, BAC, USB, etc... Watch reactions to earnings tomorrow AM, and the rest of the week. Play the tape. look for "kinks" in the daily charts. we want to catch that 50%+ bounce in financials. You know it's coming...

And just hold FAZ and SRS until 2010 or DOW 5000-6000.

Anonymous said...

Yea,
thanks BOTD, ur probably right...
I am expecting at least a short term bounce... might go into those banks for a quick trade b/c of how severely oversold they are..

kevin said...

efgu is going to pop within two weeks, you heard it here first. Going long tomorrow morning

Alamo said...

"we got the teamwork t make the dream work!! LETS GO!! LETS GO!!! -BOTD


-alamo-

holla!

Smokey said...

efgu are you serious? Pump n Dump? BOTD allows this post?

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the AMR short idea. I puts are at 80%. I might close have and keep half for the report release.

Anonymous said...

AMR down 15%!!

kevin said...

efgu is actually a good company smokey, lots of good news about them. plans to list at some point this year on the stock exchange and have produced movies like "my big fat greek wedding". The filming conference is coming up in 1 week's time and they will be discussing their plans in vegas, along with lionsgate, mgm, fox etc. Remember, you heard it here first :P

jd said...

What? no faith in obamanomics, lol.

BOTD, be very careful not to get rolled over by the inflation train later this year.. it is due to start rolling with all this "stimulus". If speedy inflation kicks in, shorts will get a beating.

Timing is the only hard part, nobody knows exactly when the inflation train will start riding again.

Hopefully it does not escalate into a dollar collapse train. :P

BUY ON THE DIP said...

AMR hit 7's.

WINNER!

7.71 -2.75 (-26.29%)

SOLD. take profits!

BUY ON THE DIP said...

bought DXO, shorted HK.

puts on AAPL for earnings.

go team!

(i own FAS) stop @ 7.98

Anonymous said...

BOTD, you shorted HK here? Do you still have a position & this is a trade/ hedge or you think the strength is a false rally? I think HK comes down to test 16.40-16.70 then rallies over $20, gut feeling... Unless we get that well news we've been expecting... I dont wanna wash sale on DXO so I'll wait till clearance and buy with oil below 40... Still short COST2much2buyinbulk? What's the target? What do you think fas does on Obama bank news/ stimulus that we should see this week?? $12?

Anonymous said...

You can't get the 'bear' necessities @ COST, why buy 3 ink cartridges/ sticks of deodorant/ steaks or whatever it may be when you only need one. Short it!

BUY ON THE DIP said...

weeeedle, weadle, weee!

8.90 1.27 (16.64%)

FAS!

move stops to 8.50+ .. can;t lose!

..... beat it like a !

BUY ON THE DIP said...

8.95 1.32 (17.30%)

BUY ON THE DIP said...

8.97 1.34 (17.56%)

Anonymous said...

BOTD - AAPL $75 puts?

seizure said...

FAS

9.43
+1.80 (23.59%)

moving stops up

Getting ready to sell out. I don't want to hold this thing overnight

Anonymous said...

How about shorting FAS

Smokey said...

kevin thanks. i checked out the website etc. looks legit but i will have to do some research. there was alot of postings about efgu supposed to pop on tuesday? what is a good buy price and sell?

Smokey said...

umm you wouldn't short fas just buy faz?

Anonymous said...

Got stopped out of FAZ at 70... should I jump back in before close??? hmmm...

Smokey said...

besides fas is not a short sale candidate even if it wasn't a 3xetf

Smokey said...

Hell no don't buy faz at that price.... its time for the fas obamination

seizure said...

getting close to the buzzer. I'm about to sell off FAS and get back into FAZ! Ride the wave. BOTD!

Old Man Coyote said...

I bought on the dip yesterday!

MTW 6.88 +0.68 (10.97%)

seizure said...

not bad. Out of FAS at $10.00 exactly

I'll wait on FAZ a bit.

Doug said...

Those APPL Puts are going to HURT...up $8 after the close.

Anonymous said...

Ohhh the AAPL! Don't bet against best in sector, even in the worst performing sectors... proof in the pudding. FAS 15+ this week...

BUY ON THE DIP said...

FUCK me!

... i just dropped my iphone.

After Hours: 91.95 +9.12 (11.01%)

FYI - i might buy more PUTS tomorrow AM.

AAPL loves $88,why did i fight it?

seizure said...

i guess i sold of FAS to early. then again, I rather profit than lose! Must not LOSE!!

BUY ON THE DIP said...

my comment from last night:

All we can do is watch the big names C, WFC, BAC, USB, etc... Watch reactions to earnings tomorrow AM, and the rest of the week. Play the tape. look for "kinks" in the daily charts. we want to catch that 50%+ bounce in financials. You know it's coming...

And just hold FAZ and SRS until 2010 or DOW 5000-6000.

January 20, 2009 9:08 PM

Anonymous said...

Nice call on AMR and FAS today, you still holding FAS? FAZ?

BUY ON THE DIP said...

thanks, and yes

Anonymous said...

I 2nd AMR...Great call. Can you explain the game plan on AAPL puts.

BUY ON THE DIP said...

i love apple products. but its a glorified retail play ... consumers are broke, SHORT AAPL!

90 to 60ish.

doug said...

With Vol dropping tomorrow on APPL, those Puts are really going to hurt.

doug said...

APPL has $30 in CASH

Anonymous said...

BOTD has made me some coin...Ill be short on AAPL... Feb or march puts at what value? You the man BOTD tight stop.

BUY ON THE DIP said...

doug, it's just an earnings spec play, nothing big. and Apple loves $88. (not sure if it's worth fighting)

we'll do a post later with stocks and price targets. buy targets, sell targets , etc...

example: BUY SRS at $52. SELL $65+

BUY ON THE DIP said...

LOL, i like this comment from last night:

"I WILL BUY $FAS in the morning. again. and again. tight stops, we will catch this rally.

tempted to buy UYG calls too."

we didn't get the UYG calls, but we nailed FAS!!! (go team!)

Johnny O said...

BOTD, oil inventories tommorow... reserves up/ oil $$$ down?? AAPL beat= 'it's not that bad' market rally again? I'm thinking about adding DUG & ERY, and some more TNA... Long Banks (FAS)& Small cap (ERY) short oil & energy= Aggressive Hedging... Thoughts?

DMK said...

Was in FAS from yesterday, stopped out on the morning dump. Back in @ 8.60!

"If you fail... dust yourself off and try again, try again"

Go team!

BUY ON THE DIP said...

yes sir!

we must take advantage of these BEAR MARKET opportunities.

it's the BUCKET/BASKET approach.

doug said...

BOTD,

I made some money playing some of your calls as I agreed with your logic, but to short APPL when they have so much cash and thier sales of Macs were UP in the bad economy.

They also have 30% margins and don't forget their shared revenue agreement with AT&T.

I don't think it's wise to short APPL even if Jobs showed up at Bernie's House unless you are looking to scalp a few dollars here or there.

BUY ON THE DIP said...

anyone get in on our spec INFRA play? FRM...

4.37
+0.56 (14.70%)

why buy FWLT or JEC, when you can buy Furmanite @ $4 ~ and Maximize Asset Uptime!

Anonymous said...

i tip my hat for FAS rec.

Anonymous said...

wow 54 comments

Anonymous said...

56 comments

Anonymous said...

56 comments

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57 comments

Anonymous said...

Hey BOTD, where do you see financials headed tomorrow? Follow up to today's rally or pull back? FAS to $15?

Anonymous said...

Hey BOTD, pulled the trigger too early today in FAS, is it still safe to get in?

Anonymous said...

comments broke 55